Lee Jackson believes his chances of a third successive podium finish could hinge on the weather Gods at Knockhill.
The Scottish venue is renowned for its changeable conditions, with rain a likely ingredient at this weekend's British Superbike meeting.
With that in mind, Jackson has set himself a realistic target of a top-ten finish for the National Superstock 600 race.
The 16-year-old has been one of the stars of the season on his Chris Walker Race School Kawasaki, finishing third in his last two races to climb to fifth in the standings.
But Jackson admits it will be tough to replicate that performance at the tricky Fife track, particularly if the heavens open.
"I'm aiming for the top ten and will take it from there," said the North Kesteven School pupil.
"That's partly to keep the pressure off, but also because you don't know what the weather is going to do at Knockhill.
"You can get four seasons in one day, which can really mess around with practice and the race.
"I'm probably not as strong in the wet as I am in the dry, so if it's like that, it will be difficult.
"I've just got to go there, take my time and build up to the race and be as smooth as possible."
Knockhill does not hold happy memories for Jackson from his British 125GP Championship days.
The 2010 race was cancelled amid appalling conditions before he crashed out of third place last year.
Remarkably though, that is the youngster's only race crash in more than two years.
"I qualified seventh, which was my best performance in the wet. I got up to third in the race, but then crashed," he recalled.
Jackson just missed out on the podium several times in the 125GP class, but he certainly hasn't been a 'nearly man' since graduating to the Superstock series.
The teenager has improved with every race in 2012, culminating in third places at Donington and Snetterton.
"Last year, some people were suggesting I could only finish fourth at best and that I couldn't make that step onto the podium," he said.
"It's nice to have proved those people wrong and show that I can ride at the front."